4-2 page 146 number 19

Complete the table below to compute the probability that a 20 to 24 year old driver will be in an accident next year.

Simple Probability Calculations
Step	Description	Calculation	Result
1	Compute the percent of drivers 20 to 24 years old who were in accidents this year.	136 ÷ 400 =	0.340 = 34.0%

4-2 page 146 number 19: Car Crashes Link to answer

Of 400 randomly selected drivers 20 to 24 years old, 136 were in a car crash last year. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected person 20 to 24 years old will be involved in an accident next year.

By computing the percent of drivers involved in accidents last year, we can estimate the probability of similarly aged drivers getting into accidents next year.

Even though the calculation produces a probability of exactly 34.0% this result is an estimate because of uncertainty due to random chance.

In later chapters, we will learn to estimate the probability and the uncertainty of the probability.